US Attack in Syria: Are More Cross-Border Attacks on the Way? - DER SPIEGEL
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Villagers in Syria praying at a mass funeral for the victims of the American cross-border raid at the end of October.
"As sovereign states, we have an obligation to solve problems before they spill across borders," US President George W. Bush said in a speech he delivered before the United Nations General
Assembly in September. Following the raid in Syria, a US security expert interpreted the presidents words as meaning that, if a country is incapable of sweeping terrorists out of its own
"backyard, then we will have to take matters into our own hands."
Nonetheless, Syria remains under suspicion. Last week, for example, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) once again demanded that it be allowed to inspect an abandoned factory 170
kilometers (105 miles) northwest of Sukkariyeh. Israel bombed the site a year ago based on intelligence that it housed a clandestine nuclear reactor, which Syria was allegedly building with
assistance from North Korea. But while Damascus has remained tight-lipped about that affair, it has not held back when it comes to condemning last week's cross-border raid by the US. Syrian
Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem labeled the attack "terrorist aggression" and "cowboy politics."
The US military operation has been particularly vexing for Iraq's government. On the Monday following the incident, the Iraqi government reacted positively to the raid, but on Tuesday it
spoke of it as an "unfortunate act" and said that it hoped that it would not disturb the "brotherly relations" between Iraq and Syria.
One reason for the Iraqis' change of course is that, in addition to dismaying Arab states, the attack has prompted criticism from Russia, France and China. German Foreign Minister
Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who was in Pakistan last week -- where just last September the US launched military raids across the border from Afghanistan -- warned of renewed instability in the
region and lamented the civilian casualties.
Nevertheless, cross-border anti-terror operations are widely viewed as self-defense and Article 51 of the UN Charter has been invoked in support of this interpretation. This justification
has been used in many conflict areas around the world -- usually at the risk of provoking dangerous regional escalations. For instance, Turkey has pursued the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)
deep into Iraq, and Russia has hunted down militant Chechens in Georgia on a number of occasions.
One intelligence source told the US magazine The New Republic that this controversial approach was like institutionalizing the "Chicago Way" -- -- an allusion to Sean Connery's famous
soliloquy in the 1987 movie "The Untouchables" about bringing a gun to a knife fight. There is concern in the Middle East that the US could take a liking to the method following the
operation in Syria.
From a military perspective, the operation was a success, says Bruce Riedel, a CIA veteran and author of the forthcoming book "The Search for Al Qaeda." The US has eliminated Abu Ghadiyah,
who Riedel believes to be perhaps the most important person responsible for smuggling fighters across the border into Iraq. Riedel hints that more such attacks may be on the way,
particularly, he says, since the Bush administration won't be around to deal with the aftermath of any such operations.
It remains to be seen what position Bush's successor will take when it comes to making cross-border raids. Neither of the two top candidates for president has commented on the latest
operation in Syria. But, in February, 2008, Barack Obama made a very clear remark on Pakistan: "If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and (then) President
Musharraf won't act, we will."
Republican candidate John McCain, on the other hand, criticized Obama for the remark -- not for wanting to bomb Pakistan but, rather, for the "naivety" of announcing the attack beforehand.