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SAGEGATEGOVERNMENT STILL CHASING ‘LONG-TERM HERD IMMUNITY’ THROUGH RECURRENT WAVES OF COVID-19 ANALYSIS OF NEW DOCUMENTS FROM THE GOVERNMENT’S SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY GROUP FOR EMERGENCIES SHOWS

THAT THE QUEST FOR HERD IMMUNITY, THROUGH SEVERAL WAVES OF THE CORONAVIRUS OVER A NUMBER OF YEARS, HAS NOT GONE AWAY SHARE THIS ARTICLE England’s Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr Jenny

Harries acknowledged on 3 July that there was “quite a possibility” the UK could see a second wave of COVID-19. Referring to the Leicester outbreak which saw lockdown extended in the area,

she implied a second wave was a distinct possibility since restrictions have eased and people are no longer being careful about social distancing or hand-washing.  But newly released

documents from the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) reveal that, a month earlier, the Government was warned explicitly of a second wave if restrictions were

eased without a robust national test and trace system. The documents also confirm that the Government was still receiving scientific advice on herd immunity. Analysis of the documents

suggests that the Government has not only recklessly sped ahead with lifting restrictions knowing that it would probably trigger a COVID-19 resurgence, but did so in pursuit of the belief

that the virus is so unstoppable that it is bound to become a ‘fifth’ seasonal coronavirus like those that cause common flus and colds.  SUBSCRIBE TO BYLINE TIMES FOR AS LITTLE AS £29 A YEAR

------------------------- SYSTEM FAILURE On 3 June, SAGE told the Government that easing restrictions without a properly functioning test and trace system would risk renewed outbreaks of

the disease.   A document from the SAGE sub-group, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M-O) – the body of scientists who advise the Government on influenza pandemic

outbreaks – records the scientists noting that “previous advice concerning the loosening of social distancing measures at the start of June was predicated on there being a highly effective

system of contact tracing in place. So effective that 80% of contacts of index cases are identified and quarantined within 48 hours”.  Yet, as lockdown restrictions were eased, there was no

such system in place. Since the end of May through to late June, official Government data revealed that less than half of people who tested positive for COVID-19 provided contact information

that teams could use to trace and isolate further possibly infected people. Between 25 June and 1 July, newer data showed that only 77% of people who had come into contact with these

infected people were being traced. And of those, only a further 70.8% of this total were reached and asked to self-isolate. In short, the data suggests that, since the test and trace system

was launched, well below 80% of the contacts of infected people are being identified and quarantined. SAGEGATEHOW GOVERNMENT NEUTERED SCIENCE TO SAVE THE ECONOMY & CHASE THE GHOST OF

HERD IMMUNITY A SPI-M-O sub-group’s document dated 3 June notes concern from scientists that “if these criteria are not yet being met, there is a risk that R [the total number of people an

infected person is likely to infect] will rise above 1 in many areas of UK with a return to exponential growth of the epidemic”. As predicted, more than a month after this warning, the R

number has now risen in England to somewhere between 0.8 and 1, amidst what the Health and Social Care Secretary Matt Hancock has described as more than 100 local outbreaks taking place

across the country every week. The new R number range indicates that it could be as high as one in every other English region apart from the Midlands. ------------------------- THE RETURN OF

HERD IMMUNITY On the same day the Government was warned about a second wave, it also received advice from SAGE virologist Professor Wendy Barclay, head of infectious disease at Imperial

College London. Barclay advised that recent findings on antibodies stated that “tests that measure neutralising antibody responses might indicate the level of ‘immunity’ to reinfection or

disease in the population” but that “it is still not clear how long naturally induced antibodies will persist”. She added: “There is still no evidence that the immune response protects

people from reinfection”. This week, a new study by scientists at King’s College London confirmed that people who recover from COVID-19 lose their immunity within around two to three months.

Barclay is the co-author of a study published the previous month in the _Journal of General Virology_, claiming that COVID-19 could eventually become a fifth seasonal coronavirus – similar

to the previous four – which cause common colds. Under this theory, future waves of COVID-19 would lead to gradually expanding levels of immunity which, even if they eventually wane, might

see the severity of the disease potentially decline over time. We would then expect “annual, biennial or sporadic patterns of [COVID-19] epidemics over the next five years”. SAGEGATE HOW

HERD IMMUNITY WAS IMPOSEDON GOVERNMENT SCIENTISTS ONDOMINIC CUMMINGS’ WATCH But the study acknowledged that the evidence-base for these modelling scenarios is not yet certain, with a need

for further “serological studies” to determine the “level of antibody protection from reinfection… the duration of the total humoral immune response… and the rate of decline from mild or

severe infection induced antibodies” – all of which “is not known”. Commenting on these conclusions, Barclay’s co-author Professor Paul Kellam, also a SAGE advisor, admitted that “we do not

really know what happens on the pathway of a new Coronavirus in humans becoming an endemic seasonal infection, but it could be that when the four seasonal Coronavirus first jumped from

animals into humans they were much like SARS-CoV-2 [COVID-19] in their transmission and pathogenesis. Over time as population immunity to the seasonal coronavirus became widespread, the

amount of severe disease probably declines”. Barclays’ advice was issued on the same day that the SAGE modelling sub-group advised on the risk of a second wave. This suggests that the

Government has been less than honest with the public about its COVID-19 strategy and that it anticipates, not just a second wave, but third, fourth, fifth if not countless more and that it

believes these waves may allow the UK population to build up immunity over a long period of time – as long as five years if not more – until the more severe symptoms begin to wane in

strength. Such a strategy suggests that the Government is explicitly not attempting to suppress COVID-19 and is hoping that herd immunity can be achieved through long-lasting antibodies from

repeated waves of infection and reinfection – which, of course, involves mass deaths.  -------------------------