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China economy to pass U.S. in Æ16, columnist says    China's economic gravity could surpass that of the United States as soon as 2016, according to a _Wall Street Journal_

columnist's interpretation of numbers from recent forecasts from the International Monetary Fund.    Columnist Brett Arends, wrote for _MarketWatch_ that China could pass the United

States that quickly by a measure of purchasing power parity. Most economists believe China is decades away from having the world's largest economy, but Arends contends that assumption

is based on using pure GDP as the basis for measure.    He cites the growing consumption power of China, a topic _American Shipper_ explored in its November issue.    The IMF responded to

Arends' contention by saying 'purchase-power parity is not the most appropriate measure because PPP price levels are influenced by non-traded services, which are more relevant

domestically than globally.”    The IMF said it relies on market exchange rates, by which the U.S. economy is 130 percent larger than China's and projected to be 70 percent larger in

2016.    But Arends said the real issue is how steeply China undervalues its currency, aided by its huge reserves of U.S. dollars.    'Comparing economies using simple exchange rates,

as the IMF suggests, raises huge problems,' he argued. 'Currency markets fluctuate. They represent international money flows, not real output. The U.S. dollar has fallen nearly 10

percent against the euro so far this year. Does anyone suggest that the real size of the U.S. economy has shrunk by 10 percent in comparison with Europe over that period? The idea is

absurd.'    Arends said the point is not that the tipping point is so close, but that it is inevitable.    'This is the result of decades during which China has successfully

pursued economic policies aimed at national expansion and power, while the U.S. has embraced either free trade or, for want of a better term, economic appeasement,' he wrote.