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Strange though it may sound, the Tories are now pro-extension and Labour strongly favours no-deal.

If you dig beneath the surface of the daily exhortations and faux cross-party talks, this is the reality – and for sound electoral reasons. 

Let’s deal with Johnson’s lot first. A majority-winning trajectory for the Conservatives can only be achieved through keeping its Leav- oriented electorate on their toes. That means fighting

an election with Brexit still in the balance. Undelivered but with the promise of success. Cummings ostensibly was hired to deliver Brexit but can only do so with better parliamentary

arithmetic post-election. Maybe he was just hired to win the election. Surely not! Brexit overrides everything. Or does it?

Absurd as it may seem, against the flow of every public pronouncement, an extension is now vital to the Conservatives’ chances of electoral success. The electorate will not be grateful for

the deliverance of a mess concocted by the Conservatives in the first place; the election simply must happen before Brexit. This reality is not helpful to the prime minister’s endless public

declarations of a 31 October exit, come what may. To borrow his analogy, he does not want to die in a ditch prematurely before an election. However, if he is forced to contemplate the

ditch, he will accept the non-mortal wound of an extension and, from said ditch, will rise, bloodied but able to fight on to secure his pledge. Heroic. The election campaign’s motto will be

the promise of Brexit. He will guarantee that the enemy will be defeated. 

In contrast, Corbyn’s cabal within the Labour Party absolutely requires the negative chaos and perceived economic woes of no deal. They see this as galvanising their base and punishing the

Tories, who would have nothing left to fight for in the subsequent economic turmoil of a freebie, hand-out and socialist-yearning electorate. For all of Labour’s long-standing criticism of

no-deal, Milne & Co shrewdly recognise that an election held in a no-deal shadow would work to their advantage.

The Liberal Democrat’s doubling down on its Remain raison d’etre would be deemed superfluous overnight and, yes, the Tories would have accomplished their Brexit promise – but only at the

expense of a shocking economic and political vacuum. In the short term at least. Thus, in the immediate aftermath of no-deal, Corbyn would leap off the fence and immediately call a vote of

no confidence, with the no-deal parliamentary numbers to win that vote. No-deal is essentially Labour’s best opportunity to gain power. Period. Whatever the Labour Party’s current public

statements indicate, and regardless of the sizeable Watson-led Remain contingent, no-deal is Corbyn’s electoral nectar. 

Boris Johnson has not been in control of events during his short tenure in No. 10. He has endured the double whammy of prorogation failure and the opposition parties refusing his election

twice. He needs, somehow, to buy more time and prolong the Brexit uncertainty, whilst reassuring the Leave base of his toughness and ensuring the more moderate Tory (Weak Remain/Soft Brexit)

voter that he can deliver a solid Brexit compromise deal. Sneaking in an extension by the back door buys a valuable three months. He can claim his enemies tied his hands and that this was

not the original plan at all. But needs must and all that. An extension is the only way of ensuring electoral success, because the 15 per cent poll lead will evaporate in an instant as soon

as Brexit is done.

Of course, Johnson and Cummings have the ultimate whip hand. They are not going to hand Corbyn a no-deal scenario. The game of double, treble, even quadruple bluff will likely end with

Brexit being delivered after a large Conservative majority in the general election. 

However, Labour do still have a sniff of a chance. They can avoid this electoral drubbing by playing the long-game and holding off Johnson’s election. Maybe they will pull it off. But the

SNP and Liberal Democrats see their favourable opinion polls and will eventually give Johnson his wish.

Thus, scrubbing around in the sub-text, beneath the surface of pronouncements and supposedly watertight policy positions, we find this most ridiculous of ironies. The Tories need an

extension and Labour yearns for no-deal.

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