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Rishi Sunak is suddenly being talked up as the heir apparent to the Prime Minister. The ostensible reason is a poll by the Conservative Home website, which is popular with Tory activists. It

shows that a third of respondents would back the Chancellor to succeed Boris Johnson, far more than any other contender. A separate poll also suggests that the PM’s popularity has taken a

hit after a series of mishaps, from his failure to sack Matt Hancock to his initial reluctance to self-isolate after Sajid Javid contracted Covid. 

One should not read too much into such surveys, which are more useful for registering dissatisfaction than for predicting who might win a putative leadership contest that will probably not

take place for several years. Whenever the time comes, perhaps not until after at least one more general election, the final decision will rest with Conservative MPs. But there is no doubt

that Rishi Sunak’s deft handling of the economy during the pandemic has enabled him to establish himself as a possible future premier, as respected by the general public as he is adored by

party members. 

One reason for the Chancellor’s popularity is that his interventions are few and far between. Other senior ministers — Priti Patel, Dominic Raab, Michael Gove — are seldom out of the

headlines. But Sunak keeps his powder dry. When he recently let it be known that he was unhappy about the chaos inflicted on the travel industry by constantly changing official advice, it

had all the more impact because he had hitherto kept his counsel. Today’s relaxation of quarantine restrictions for fully vaccinated travellers from the US and the EU owes much to the

Chancellor, who has championed two of the industries most severely affected by the pandemic, hospitality and tourism.

Some of Sunak’s initiatives, such as last summer’s Eat Out to Help Out scheme, have been criticised (with the benefit of hindsight) for fuelling the second wave of the pandemic. On his

watch, the Treasury has been blamed for prioritising the economy over the health of the vulnerable. It was Sunak, however, who ensured that the policy of austerity that followed the 2008

crash has not been repeated this time. The burden of this even deeper crisis has still fallen most heavily on the less affluent, yet Sunak has splashed the cash to soften its impact. He has

extended schemes such as furlough, self-employed support, cheap loans and Universal Credit. Money was found to enable NHS pay to keep pace with inflation, even if others in the public

sector, such as the police, had to do without. The private sector, which has borne the brunt of the slump, has so far been cushioned from tax rises. 

Analysing his own poll in The Times (behind a paywall), Paul Goodman of Conservative Home points out that many of Sunak’s policies merely follow the Treasury’s traditional instincts. These

include a disregard for manifesto promises that it deems unwise, such as the promise not to increase taxes on income and to protect the interests of state pensioners. Hence the still

emerging new policy of raising national insurance (in effect, an income tax hike) to pay for social care, and the likely rebalancing of burdens between the generations by removing the

“triple lock” on pensions. These broken promises may not matter now, but they will come back to haunt Sunak later.

In other ways, however, the Chancellor has pursued a distinctive course which cannot solely be attributed to the Treasury mandarins. He refused to back down in the face of a backbench revolt

over cuts in overseas aid, but his promise to restore the cut as soon as circumstances allowed was enough to buy off some of the rebels. As Goodman says, Sunak does not want to be seen as

“the Martini candidate”, after a notorious luxury drinks ad. He knows he must be tough as well as tender.

He must also sometimes be ruthless. It was his intervention last month that stopped Boris Johnson’s planned trumpeting of his grandiose Net Zero green energy policy in the run-up to the

Glasgow climate summit in November. Quite apart from the eye-watering cost, estimated at £1.4 trillion, Sunak had spotted that forcing tens of millions of households to pay to replace their

gas boilers had all the makings of a poll tax-style political catastrophe. The whole plan is now being rethought and repackaged.

However distinguished his tenure of the Exchequer, Sunak cannot take his path to the top for granted. Chancellors do not often go on to become Prime Minister; those that do, such as Jim

Callaghan, John Major and Gordon Brown, often prove unequal to the task. 

The obvious exception, Winston Churchill, actually proves the rule: he was one of the worst chancellors of the last century, even if he went on to become the greatest prime minister. John

Maynard Keynes wrote a devastating critique of his policy of returning to the gold standard, The Economic Consequences of Mr Churchill, which blamed him for the Great Depression. Churchill

spent nearly a decade in the political wilderness.

Sunak has already avoided that fate, but in the public mind he is closely associated with Boris Johnson, both on Brexit and Covid. He too will be judged on the success or otherwise of the

ill-defined “levelling up” mantra which helped get a third Tory Prime Minister elected. Sunak would be the fourth — a record in modern times.

How would he distinguish himself? The first Asian and the first Hindu to occupy 10 Downing Street would certainly be plus points. The public, however, might be less impressed to see an Old

Etonian replaced by a Wykehamist. Already wealthy, Sunak married an heiress. After a stellar career in the City, he deserves his success, but may struggle to prove that he knows how the

other half lives. The Trade Secretary Liz Truss, who is even more popular with Tory activists, got to Oxford from a state school and is arguably more of a meritocrat. There are equally

brilliant rising stars, several with an ethnic minority background, such as the Business Secretary Kwai Kwarteng and the Exchequer Secretary Kemi Badenoch. His predecessor, Sajid Javid, has

much more experience in high office. So does Priti Patel — a force of nature and should never be underestimated.

Despite all the rivals who could block his ascent of the greasy pole, Rishy Sunak looks best placed to succeed Boris Johnson. By the time there is a vacancy, however, things could look very

different. Labour could get their act together and the Tories could fall apart. Johnson is said by some to be itching to leave office in order to make money — but the awful example of David

Cameron ought to rein in that ambition. More likely, Boris will wish to emulate Margaret Thatcher’s desire to go on and on. If so, it might be wise for the Chancellor to consider all his

options. George Osborne went on not just to make his pile, but to edit a newspaper and, now, to run the British Museum. Global institutions beckon after a successful run at the Treasury. The

world, not just Westminster, is Rishi Sunak’s oyster.  

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